old paper 2

here is one of my first related correspondings on the subject

These are the first three parts of a story that I wrote five years ago

THE END OF THE WORLD

Part 1

Oliver: Happy New Year Robert.
Robert: Happy New Year Oliver
Oliver: can you believe it? We are already in the year 2004, (smiling) you once said that it will never come!
Robert: I am glad I was mistaken about that.
Oliver: Really?!I am not sure about that.
Robert: What do you mean by that Oliver?
Oliver: well, I always find you glad when bad things happen!
Robert: this is not true.
Oliver: it is true.
Robert: OK, let me explain, I do not become glad because something bad happened, I become glad because what happened matched my expectations, which means that my studies are on the right way
Oliver: I believe you are pessimistic by nature!
Robert: no Oliver, I only like to face the facts not run away from them.
Oliver: What facts?!Is the collapse of the world a fact?!
Robert: yes!
Oliver: What kind of logic is that? NO one can predict the Future.
Robert: but Oliver, predicting the future is what science is all about, for example the law of gravity predicts that when a body is thrown upward it will come down again, and the laws of Chemistry predict that when you mix a certain substance with another one the result has to be so and so, and if you give a patient a certain medicine he will be cured,..And so on.
Oliver: this is only in pure science, but in the Human science no one can predict anything.
Robert: the difference between pure and human science is only in the degree of accuracy, not in the main logic of any science which is trying to predict the future.
Oliver: I still do not think that any one can predict the future when it comes to a human related matter.
Robert: Ok, take this example; can’t we say that History shows us that all civilizations have to collapse one day?
Oliver: well, maybe ,but if you are trying to say that the modern civilization has to collapse one day ,you will not be able to say when or how it will collapse ,and also you must admit that another civilization, and maybe a higher one ,has to follow our civilization,...beside ,you cannot say the whole world is only one civilizations if the western civilization would collapse now, it is very possible that the East will go on growing.
Robert: OK, let us put in front of us all the past civilizations and all the ones that may come in the future .You must admit that there must be a highest one between them.
Oliver: Highest in what way? Every civilization has its own properties and characteristics.
Robert: take any criteria or standard, for example, the number of population, or the quantity of energy consumed any criteria or standard that you may wish, now, you have to admit that there will be a certain civilization and even a certain moment in this civilization that represents the PEAK of all civilizations.
Oliver: why don't we say that these criteria which we choose may go on growing forever?
Robert: nothing can grow forever, Oliver.
Oliver: you can't prove that.
Robert: this is a very deep Philosophical point, but let us not stop here, let us put it in the practical way, do you know ANYTHING that grows forever?
Oliver: OK,I will not stop at this point, so what?
Robert: SO, we can look at all human civilizations as one civilization which has ONE peak.
Oliver :( smiling) and this peak is now, right?
Robert: Actually, we may already have passed that peak, and we are on our way down!
Oliver: you cannot prove that, and even if you proved it, it will mean that we JUST started the way down and we still have thousands of years to go down.
Robert: this is not true Oliver
THE END OF PART ONE

THE END OF THE WORLD

Part 2

Robert: let us assume that we are now at the peak of all the civilizations that mankind made or will make, and that we are going down word, do you really think that it would take thousands of years for the complete collapse?
Oliver: Sure.
Robert: Why?
Oliver: because there were thousands of year of civilization before now, so it will need another thousands of year to be destroyed.
Robert: ok ,imagine that the world ,which has now more than 6 billions of people, lost 5 billion of them,...would you call that a complete collapse?
Oliver: 5 billions lost!!Of course that would be a huge collapse.
Robert: then we are not talking about thousands of years; we are talking about only 200 years.
Oliver: what do you mean by that?
Robert: the population in the world never reached one billion before the year 1800...so you see; we have only 200 years to lose 5 billions.
Oliver: any way, even if that was the case, why do you keep saying that the huge collapse is very soon?...200 year is not a very short time, you know,...beside, which is the more important, you didn't prove yet that we are going down from now.
Robert: of course I still didn't prove that to you, but let us keep on assuming that we are at the peak knowhow?
Oliver: ok.
Robert: do you really think that it would take 200 years to lose the 5 billions?
Oliver: WHAT ABOUT THAT TOO?!!
Robert: do you really think that the time of building anything is equal to the time needed for this thing to be destroyed?
Oliver: WHY NOT? And why would it have to be equal? I think that it would take much longer time for the destruction to take place.
Robert: NEVER!
Oliver: and WHY is that?
Robert: it is a logical law!
Oliver: what logical law?
Robert: it is a logical law that the time of destruction has to be shorter than the time of building, and that goes for every thing!
Oliver: I never heard about this law, and it does not seem to be very logical to me.
Robert: ok, let us be more practical,I will give you some example,..What is easier for you to do, to build a house or to destroy it?
Oliver: to destroy it.
Robert: it also means that you can destroy a house in a period of time less than the time needed to build it.
Oliver: yes.
Robert: is it easier to go up a hill or to go down?
Oliver: to go down.
Robert: and it will take less time,ok, how much time is needed for a bubble to form and for a bubble to burst?...and for a spring to be stretched or squeezed, and for a spring to be back to its size?.......in all these examples building is like putting a certain quantity of energy in a closed system, and when the procedure of collapsing begins, all the energy is released at once, the case seems to be like opening the cage for this monster of energy to go out, and NO ONE will be able to control the monster of energy when it comes out of its cage!
Oliver: maybe, but all these examples are in the field of pure science; I still do not believe that you can apply the same principles on anything related to human or even to any living creature.
Robert: I told you before, Oliver, that there is no difference in principle between pure science and human science .ok, take these examples........
THE END OF PART 2



THE END OF THE WORLD

Part 3

Robert: in all upper animals, death comes at once, also falling ill happens at once, believing in a certain religion happens at once, even falling in love happens at once!
Oliver: well....
Robert: when you write a story or compose a piece of music, the climax has to be near the end, and then the emotions fade so quickly.
Oliver :( smiling) that reminds me with the quick fade of power which follows the sexual orgasm!
Robert: that’s right, I think you got my point now.
Oliver: Robert, I think that we have to go back now to the main point of the peak, before going farther, you didn't say why should it be a sharp peak? Why couldn't it be a flat peak?!...I mean that even if we did reach the peak now, it is very possible that we may stay there for relatively long time without going downward or even growing farther.
Robert: this is a good point, you see Oliver, there is a big difference between the stable state and what we are in now, the stable state, that can stay balanced for a relatively long time has conditions that are not present in our case.
Oliver: and what would be these conditions?
Robert: ok, when you build a building and you want it to stay stable you have to build it in strong bases.
Oliver: sure.
Robert: if the building was built rashly and quickly, it cannot have strong bases, strong bases need good time to be done.
Oliver: but why can't we say that the bases may be done quickly and strongly in the same time?
Robert: maybe, but the quick rise would be an alarming sign that the bases weren’t strong enough.
Oliver: well, I guess so.
Robert: it is obvious that the modern civilization rose very quickly.
Oliver: Robert, "quickly" is a very relative word, how can you tell that 200 years were not enough to found strong bases?!
Robert: you are right, but when I say" quickly" here,I am not referring to the numbers of years, but to the way in which the procedure of building was done,...you see Oliver,...when you do your work in a relaxed mood, is not like doing it when you are under pressure,...when you do it under pressure you probably will leave gaps in it, which will lead to a very fragile building that cannot last stable.
Oliver :( smiling) well, I don't think that anyone was rushing humanity when it achieved its progress.
Robert: at least here there is a known theory, did you hear about the theory of CHALLENGE and RESPONSE by Arnold Toynbee?
Oliver: I think so...
Robert: Toynbee said that all the big steps in the progress of civilization were not taken because good conditions existed, but on the contrary, all the big steps of civilization were taken under the pressure of very bad conditions! Even in the procedure of biological evolution, modern science proved that the big steps were taken under great pressure of very bad conditions!
Oliver: I don't know about that, but I don't think that there are serious gaps in our civilization.
Robert: actually there are HUGE gaps.
Oliver: name some......

THE END OF PART 3

End of Civilization

During 2 million years,human life has been primitive(or near primitive),and then suddenly jumped,during 200 years only,to a very high level,...any sudden change in any system would lead to upsetting the balance of it,and the loss of its stability,...and as far as the size and the sharpness of this sudden change,comes the size of the imbalance,....it is clear from the above-mentioned figures,that the loss of stability in human life had been enormous,...this can be viewed as a sharp violation of a well-established system,continued for tens of thousands of years,...and this system which was breached resists this violation by what is like a force that attracts civilization once again to the bottom,leading to its sudden collapse once it loses the strength of bullish surge,...and since, the collapse of anything takes much less time than the time of its construction,..so,the collapse will happen very fast and from very high level,..its dash will be huge,..it is impossible to turn to stability at the primitive level once again,..the system has to go beyond that to the situation of disintegration.
Partial acceptance of these facts,in light of scientific evidence and global news which confirm this finding,is a state of lying worse than the state of full denial that existed years ago,..indeed,this state of lying is increasing rapidly so that it may be able to obscure the facts that are unfolding every day, in an attempt to resist and delay the start of the collpase,....consequently,the amount of shock that will occur due to facing the truth,is greater now than ever,...it is clear that the loss of confidence will be much greater now,...the amount of this shock,will determine the strength and the speed of the collapse,and therefore the level of destruction which would result,because the high speed cripples the process of adaptation.
The time spent on the process of collapse is reduced as the collapse is delayed,but this reduction happens in a lower rate than the rate by which the scale of the devastation is increased as the result of this delay,..this is due to the fact that the time spent on the process of collapse is a variable tends to zero,....however,the fact that this time is getting to be very short, raises the question of the scenario of events that could occur in such a very short period of time and create this huge amount of destruction,..by the modern means of communication and information,which mounted to a formidable force,the shock of the truth will reach everyone almost at the same time,..the impact of this knowledge will be strong enough to paralyze the mind of most people,leading to a huge disturbance in people's life,and even,to a huge disturbance in their state of health,in a sudden and deadly way,....this knowledge will not come from a strong news(such as a major war),..in fact ,its impact will not return to its own strength but to the very high degree of vulnerability in which humans had become,...the powerful role of the media and communication will not begin only when this recent news is spread,but continued for many years to pave the way for this moment by spreading the reasons that led to this current situation of very high fragility,..and even pushing this fragility to the deepest level,which is the human mind,..making it the weakest point in the structure,..the point at which the chain be cut off,and on which the entire structure will break down.
It is noted that at the stages of the rise of civilization,this rise was the force which prevented the process of the collapse from beginning,...getting higher, the force pulling civilization downward became stronger,..it was required to rise faster and faster to resist it,..the speed of this rise reached a very high rate in the last years of the twentieth century,..it became impossible to continue this rapid rise,..with the beginning of the new century,we needed enormous resistance just to keep our current level,...with more delay,,..the more fragile and sensitive the building will get(due to aggravation of lying),...and the amount of resistance required to prevent the collapse will be practically impossible,...at this point,the collapse will happen immediately,because of a usual incident,with a very limited power.
The final phase of any acceleration has tremendous effects which occur in a very short period of time,so,do not be fooled by the observation that life is still going around us in almost its usual manner,..and try to observe the deep changes instead of the superficial ones,..I believe that we are talking about weeks,not months,now.
Finally,it is true that there are differences between one country and another,but the impact of these differences will appear in the scale of destruction and the speed of the collapse,more than appearing in its timing.